Mets Hit Home Run with Robinson Cano Trade
When the New York Mets hired new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, he told everyone the team was going to be in win-now mode. And while it was easy to dismiss his comments, he has taken a huge first step in that direction with the acquisition of Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.
The trade sends the Seattle Mariners a group of players that includes outfielder Jay Bruce, relievers Anthony Swarzak and Gerson Bautista, and prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn. The Mets will also receive $20 million from the Mariners to offset Cano’s salary.
The initial response to the trade as rumors were being leaked was the Mets were getting played and wasting money as well as valuable farm player assets.
This may come as a surprise to some, but you have to pay to acquire very good players. And Robinson Cano was and is a very good player. Edwin Diaz is a great player.
The Mariners started this offseason saying they’re retooling and looking to trade some assets. Meanwhile, some thought the Mets’ comments about contending were a ploy to sell tickets—or to save face.
Criticisms of the trade almost are entirely focused on Robinson Cano. With many ignoring that Cano is one of the best second basemen in baseball. Last season, he was worth almost 3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). The estimated value of that kind of production is $24 million.
That just happens to be what Cano’s contract is per year. Except last season he did that in just half a season due to his PED suspension. So, he earned half of that. Cano was worth double what he was paid. Of course, his production will decline as he continues to age, but we also know that he’s been keeping himself “youthful” with those very same PEDs.
The Price for Edwin Diaz
The real prize of the trade is Edwin Diaz. Critics of the trade say this is a huge overpay for a player at position of free-agent depth. “There’s lots of relievers out there!” they exclaim as they point to many very good pitchers who are not nearly as dominant as Edwin Diaz.
Diaz is easily one of the top three to five closers in baseball. How much would he cost right now as a free agent? Kenley Jansen was worth $80 million over five years. The Mets will be paying him half of that, at most.
Acquiring him cost the Mets two very good prospects—as great closers cost these days. The Yankees got Gleyber Torres for half season of Aroldis Chapman. The Padres got top-ten Francisco Mejia for Brad Hand. To get Sean Doolittle, the Nationals had to give up Blake Treinen and Jesus Luzardo—a similarly talented closer and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.
So, the Mets gave up two quality prospects, but neither is ranked as high as any of those aforementioned names with Kelenic and Dunn ranking at 62 and 89 on MLB.com’s prospect list. Who knows if those two will even turn into MLB players.
In 2017, the 62 and 89 players on that list were Jorge Alfaro and Austin Hays. Both have struggled and may someday be adequate big leaguers, but if a team traded Diaz for Alfaro and Hays, people’s heads would explode at the imbalance of it all.
The Diaz portion of the trade looks very good for the Mets and is, at worst, market-value. So, then the trade boils down to Cano for Bruce and Swarzak. And if your favorite team wouldn’t trade those two disappointments for a second baseman who can get you three to six WAR for the next few seasons, then they just don’t like winning.
It’s not like the Mariners got worked here. It’s really a win-win trade. Seattle gets prospects and salary relief. No one was ripped off here. But the Mets are a better team now.
